This post is part two in a series written by Emilie DeLong, Chrystie Reep and Bobbie Termeer. If you missed part one, it makes sense to start there.
Now the big upfront question is not only how much, but when?
The start of the TV upfront market may be as soon as this week or as delayed as post-July 4 or longer. What’s the hold up? Well, both broadcast and cable networks are still in the midst of mapping out their pricing indices. Network budgets are likely to see declines in spending anywhere from 5%-10%, if not more. Cable will most likely realize a slightly smaller adjustment.
As we mentioned in part one of this two part series, we spent three days in Detroit watching presentations and wondering what key points the TV networks were going to try and make advertisers and buyers “feel good” about spending money again.
What was consistent across all presentations was that the networks seem to recognize the challenges ahead of them. What they still have to work on explaining is how they are going to continue to adjust their sales strategy and philosophy. Three themes that seem to surface in all of the presentations are as follows:TV vs. All Other Mediums
The overlying theme at the presentations this year was that TV is still the best platform to reach your audience. Every day we read about new ways to reach the consumer (social media, mobile advertising, digital advertising, new out-of-home opportunities, etc.), but when you look at the numbers, TV still has a larger reach than most of these vehicles. The reach may not be as targeted as other vehicles, but yes, if you win TV, you have a very large reach. That said, it is also to remember that reach alone is often not enough.
TV vs. Other Screens
It was surprising how little the networks mentioned their digital properties. It became a sticky subject as they tried to convince us that TV is the best medium to use while keeping us aware of their growing online presence. As a result, they ended up breezing over the fact that their shows are available on their websites as well as Hulu and instead turned the focus to content.
ABC, CBS and Turner emphasized that if they have the content and programming that the consumer is looking for, then the consumer will watch and connect with it wherever they can…on-air, online or via a mobile phone, resulting in both engagement and reach for advertisers.
Network TV vs. Cable
FOX emphasized that network TV has the largest reach. Turner disagreed stating that shows such as The Closer have just as big a reach and that consumers don’t know or care if they are watching cable or network TV. Yes, consumers watch programs and not network or cable TV, but we think both FOX and Turner missed the boat on this one. Network TV and cable are two different vehicles and they should be used in conjunction with one another. Network TV typically achieves a large reach, while cable provides the opportunity to reach a more targeted audience.
Every day you can read a prediction about the economy and how it will impact an arguably broken process that is the upfront. If it moves quickly, the Networks will benefit. If it moves slowly, the advantage will reside with buyers. What won’t change, however, is the importance of understanding how to align content between a marketer and the media in ways that will add value to the viewer.
Only time will tell whether that is measured in weeks or months.
photo credit: Luc Van Braekel
